I run a software company called the Knowledgeone Corporation and our main job is to provide the tools to capture, manage and find content. As such, we need to be on top of the hardware and software systems used by our customers so that we can constantly review and update our enterprise content management products like RecFind 6 so that they are appropriate to the times and devices in use.

I have spoken in previous Blogs about tablets and form factors and what is needed for business so other than providing the following links, I won’t go over old ground.

Will the Microsoft surface tablet unseat the iPad?

The PC is dead, or is it?

What will be the next big thing in IT?

Could you manage all of your records with a mobile device?

Why aren’t tablets the single solution yet?

The real impact of mobilization – How will it affect the way we work?

Mobile and the Web – The real future of applications?

Form factor – The real problem with mobile devices doing real work

Since my last Blog on the subject we have all seen RT tablets come and go (there will be a big landfill of RT tablets somewhere) and we are now all watching the slow and painful demise of Blackberry. In both of these cases we have to ask how big, super-clever companies like Microsoft and Blackberry could get it so wrong. Just thinking about the number of well-educated and highly experienced marketing and product people they have, it is inconceivable that they couldn’t work out what the average Joe in the street could have told them for free.

Then let’s also think about HP’s disastrous experiment with its TouchPad tablet (another e-waste landfill) and it becomes apparent that some of the largest, richest and best credentialed companies in the world can’t forecast what will happen in the tablet market.

In my opinion the problem all along, apart from operating system selection (iOS or Android?), has been matching needs to form factor and processing power. For example, no one wants a 12 inch phone and no one wants to write and read large documents on a 3 inch screen. This is why most of us still carry around three devices instead of one; a phone, a tablet and a laptop. This is just plain silly, what is the point of a small form factor device if I have to supplement it with a large form factor device? Like most other users, I really just want to carry around one device and I want it to have the capabilities and processing power for all the work I do.

It is for this reason that I believe the next big thing in the tablet market will be based on phones, not tablets. I envision slightly larger and much more powerful phones with universal connectors (are you listening Apple?) and docking capability. I would also like it to have a minimum of 4G and preferably 5G when available.

I want to be able to use it as a phone and when I get to my office I want to connect it to my keyboard, screen and network. I want to be able to connect it to a projector when visiting customers and prospects and I want a dynamically sizing desktop that knows when to automatically adjust the display to the form factor being viewed. That is, I want a different desktop for my screen at work than I want on the phone screen when travelling.

This brings up an interesting issue about choice of operating system as Windows owns about 95% of all business PCs and servers. I have previously never thought about buying a Windows Phone (I had one once a few years ago with Windows CE and it was awful) but my ideal device is going to have to run on the Windows operating system to be really usable in my new one-device paradigm.

I wonder why Microsoft didn’t think of this?

The financial and IT news services tell us very pessimistic stories about the major PC players like DELL and HP. The general gist is that sales of PCs are down and sales of tablets are up and that the share prices of DELL and HP are falling. Just yesterday, the CEO of HP announced to a stunned market that 2013 will likely be worse than 2012. She also lamented the frequent turnover of HP CEO’s since the demise of Carly Fiorina. But to my mind that was a strange thing to do when also announcing that she won’t be improving anything and in fact will be in charge when things get worse. The mental picture I get is of the captain steering the ship into the rocks. My guess is that the musical chairs game at the top of HP will continue for some time yet because market analysts don’t like bad news and shareholders don’t like falling share prices.

So is the PC dead? Will we see it completely replaced in our homes and offices within a few short years? Are you still planning to buy a new PC? If so, why? Is business still planning to buy more PCs, for example to support Windows 8?  Will business in fact move to Windows 8 in 2013 or 2014 or 2015? Why would anyone be investing in expensive new PC hardware for their home or office? Are there better alternatives available now?

To my mind the global financial crisis that began in 2007/2008 has at least as much to do with falling PC sales as the advent of clever tablets from people like Apple. All over the western world people are holding back on spending money and are simply not replacing ‘older’ PCs or notebooks. In fact, I see the current crop of tablets as complimentary devices to PCs and notebooks, not replacements.  I blogged about this previously in “Why aren’t tablets the single solution yet?” and still believe my arguments to be valid.

My customers for example, still use PCs in the office to run my enterprise content management system RecFind 6 and use notebooks to run it when travelling. However, they are also now demanding that I provide support for a range of mobile devices including smartphones and tablets. But my customers are not replacing their PCs and notebooks with tablets, they are using tablets in an appropriate way to extend what they can do with mobile workers.

I also think that companies like DELL and HP are their own worst enemies. They have both exhibited a surprising lack of innovation and salesmanship and their marketing people seem to be about five years behind the market. They have both outsourced their services and support to awful Indian call centres and focussed more on reducing costs than on improving customer service. Customers have a way of showing their disapproval by walking away and I believe this is what they are doing.

So whereas I think tablets are the future I don’t think they are capable enough yet to replace PCs and notebooks in the office environment. I think most people have a tablet in addition to their PC and notebook (and smartphone).

I don’t see tablets, even the next generation, having all the functionality and screen size and power we need to replace PCs in the office. Even in the home, the small screen size of a tablet mitigates its value as does the lack of applications and connectivity; not everyone wants to replace their working backup drive and USB printer just to accommodate Apple.

I also think that PCs and notebooks are too expensive and that Intel, DELL and HP are too used to big margins. In economics we talk about the intersection of the price and demand curves; the theoretical point at which we make the most money. Set the price too high and you sell fewer and make less money. Set the price too low and you sell more but make less profit. Somewhere in the middle is the point where we set our price to get the optimum sales and profit results.

For example, if Apple priced the New iPad at $5,000 if wouldn’t sell any and it wouldn’t make any money but if it priced it at $10 it would sell a shed-load but also wouldn’t make any money. At $400 plus it seems to sell as many as it can produce and also make the maximum profit. Apple has found its optimum price point.

Every vendor struggles for the optimum price point and over time as technology matures and becomes more common, prices have to drop. I don’t think the prices of PCs and notebooks have dropped enough. It’s just economics stupid, your PC and note book prices are way above your optimum price point and that’s one reason why people are not buying them.

So no, I don’t think PCs are dead. I think their sales have dropped because of a combination of the ongoing global financial crisis and poor management and product decisions from the major players like Intel, DELL and HP. Apple has cleverly capitalised on this situation, it didn’t create it. Apple is clearly innovative, HP and DELL are not.

I believe that we are yet to see at least one more re-invention of the PC and notebook, albeit of a higher quality and with more innovation that Intel’s Ultra Book attempt at reinventing the notebook. The re-invention should also come with a new lower pricing algorithm, not a raising of prices as attempted by Intel with the Ultra Book range of notebooks.

So, Intel, DELL and HP; the ball is firmly in your court. You all employ scores of really smart and innovative people. Why don’t you give them the challenge? If you come up with a realistically priced and innovative new PC solution I would certainly buy a few. But, please do something about your service levels; I for one am really tired of being bounced around Indian, Singaporean and Philippine call centres. If foreign call centres are part of the new deal I am afraid that I want no part of it. That model is broken. If you want my business then I demand better service.

We all know about the success of tablets both in the home and enterprise. It is one of those overnight success stories that took around ten years or more. The real breakthrough was the iPad and it is still the market leader and the trend setter; the one that all others try to emulate.

The fact that many tablets failed before the advent of the iPad and that many more have failed since is testimony to the uniqueness of the iPad, to its creators getting it ‘just right’ and to Apple being the premier marketing organization of our time. The fact that the iPad outsells all of its competitors despite having fewer features is due to the understated brilliance of its design and Apple’s overachieving marketing department.

Despite their best efforts, huge budgets and amazing technology, both HP and Samsung have failed to topple the iPad. Now we have Microsoft with its vapourware Surface about to attempt the same task; good luck Microsoft but for now I am placing my bets on Apple to win this contest. Then again, maybe Google’s coming Nexus 7 tablet will be the deal-breaker?

I own an iPad 2 and a Samsung Galaxy Tab and despite the Samsung having more capabilities I would choose the iPad every time and it is the one I carry around with me despite the missing USB port and sandboxed file system. It wins because it is just ‘right’; it is super easy to configure and use and just does what it is supposed to do without irritating bugs, idiosyncrasies or pain. This is due to the maturity and robustness of iOS. The Samsung on the other hand suffers because of the immaturity and instability of the Android operating system; I feel sorry for Samsung because they have done a good job with the hardware only to be let down by the software. Google, are you listening?

However, the iPad has not replaced my smart-phone, desktop computer or laptop and it isn’t likely to until it matures and grows a lot past both the iPad 2 and the stupidly named New iPad (I guess even Apple can’t get it right every time). The reasons are pretty self-evident:

·         It can’t run all the applications I need

·         Its screen is too small for some jobs

·         It is too big to replace my phone and doesn’t work as a phone

·         It has limited connectivity

·         The sandboxed file system is next to useless when I need to transfer data between applications. In fact, you may as well say it doesn’t have a file system.

·         It can’t be networked (connecting via Wi-Fi is not the same as networking; for enterprise use it needs to connect to Active Directory)

So even though the iPad is the ‘best’ it is still light years away from being the single device I could use in my business. This means it is an ‘additional’ device, not a replacement. I still need my smartphone and my desktop and my laptop and this is just too silly for words because all of these devices can receive and send emails, all of these devices can receive and send messages and all of these devices allow me to type and create and read documents, etc., etc. There is an enormous overlap of functionality, a duplication of functionality which is more than silly; it is stupid; why am I receiving the same email on four devices?

You may ask then why do I have four devices? The simple answer is that each one of them is more appropriate in a given situation. For example, at my desk there is nothing better than the desktop, in the airport just before my flight the smart-phone is best, in my hotel room the night before the meeting the laptop is perfect and while having coffee just before a meeting the iPad is the ideal device. However, none of them are appropriate for all the things I do and all the places I go. This is the major dilemma of the modern office worker.

I do not want to work with four devices, I do not want to carry three devices (phone, laptop and iPad) on business trips and I think it is just plain dumb to have to send and receive the same email on four different devices. We need a single solution and everyone in the industry tells me it will be a tablet but I have yet to see a tablet that fits the bill or even comes close.

I want a screen big enough to view and compose important documents or presentations. I want a real keyboard. I want connectivity, I want security. I want to be able to run all the applications I need to run my business. I also want lightness and small size and a phone. I am not Robinson Crusoe; every business person I speak to wants the same capabilities and until tablets can come close to satisfying my needs they will never be the single device business people need.

To all the tablet makers out there, Apple, Samsung, HP, Lenovo, Google, and the like; please, please listen to your customers and produce a new generation device that will simplify our lives and reduce our load. Please give me a single device that does everything.